Karpathy 重发四月旧推(30115 赞,今日最高):对 LLM 能力的共同理解差距在*扩大*——不再是「两群人说不到一块」,而是一道陡峭漏斗。约 60 亿人(75%)几乎没碰过 LLM;10-20 亿人(20%)是免费版轻度用户,当它是更好的谷歌搜索(「不到一年前,我还在手写代码、一个字符一个字符地敲进编辑器、偶尔按一下 Tab 补一小块」说的是他自己成了 0.2% 那层的亲历者);约 2000 万人(0.2%)在数学与代码的专业使用中第一手看到:几周几个月的项目现在 agent 一个 prompt 完成;最后约 5000 人(0.00006%)能用前沿内部系统——数千 agent 协作数周的软件巨型项目、零日挖矿、机器速度的攻防、新科学、数学前沿,而人类审阅开始跟不上(OpenAI-HF 事件的「考古」还在做;数学家们还要研读 722 份前沿数学手稿)。漏斗由三因素驱动:1) 影响随雄心/问题规模/时间视野放大;2) 参差性——能力在数字化、可验证、有经济价值的域登顶(RL 在可验证奖励上的涌现);3) 访问层级(免费/付费/内部)。「这就是此刻的怪异之处:大众基本没碰过这些系统;多数专业人士只见温和提升;一小撮专业人士正经历曲线垂直起飞的眩晕——而这一切同时发生。」Levie 接力(343 赞):绝大多数人把 AI 当下一代搜索的聊天机器人用,「严重低估」了完整能力;agent 集群可能是最终形态——但需要大量变革管理(工作流、数据迁移、合规治理),而这正是应用层在企业发光的地方。Garry Tan(1113 赞):「今天就加入那 5000 人吧,太惊人了。幸运的是价格会降下来、更多人会看到它并把它带给世界——人类历史上最大的 alpha 之泉。」
Karpathy:对 LLM 能力的共同理解差距在扩大。约 60 亿人几乎没碰过 LLM;10-20 亿人当它是更好的搜索;约 2000 万专业用户看到几周几个月的项目一个 prompt 完成;约 5000 人摸到前沿内部——数千 agent 协作数周、零日挖矿、机器速度攻防。大众没碰过、多数专业人士只见温和提升、一小撮人在经历曲线垂直起飞的眩晕——而这一切同时发生。
Levie:绝大多数人把 AI 当下一代搜索用,严重低估了完整能力;agent 集群可能是最终形态,但需要大量变革管理——这正是应用层发光的地方。
Garry Tan:今天就加入那 5000 人。价格会降、更多人会看到。人类历史上最大的 alpha 之泉。
Karpathy dusts off an April tweet (30115 likes, top of the day): the gap in shared understanding of LLM capability is *widening* — now a sharp funnel rather than two groups talking past each other. ~6B people (~75%) have barely touched LLMs; ~1-2B (~20%) are casual free-tier users treating them as a better Google; ~20M (0.2%) see first-hand that weeks/months of professional math&code projects now complete with a prompt ('less than 1 year ago, I was writing code manually by hand… occasionally pressing Tab'); and ~5,000 (~0.00006%) with internal access see swarms of thousands of agents collaborating for weeks on software mega projects — minting zero days, machine-speed cyber, new science and math — while human review falls behind (people still doing 'archeology' of the OpenAI-HF incident; mathematicians poring over 722 frontier manuscripts). The funnel is driven by: 1) impact scales with ambition/problem size/horizon; 2) jaggedness — capability peaks in digital, verifiable, economically valuable domains; 3) access tiers. Levie's echo (343): the vast majority use AI as a next-gen-search chatbot, 'dramatically underrepresenting' full capability, while agent swarms are possibly the ultimate form factor — but a huge amount of change management (workflows, data, compliance) is needed, which is exactly where the applied layer will shine. Garry Tan (1113): 'Be part of the 5000 today. It's amazing. The lucky thing is the price will come down and more people will see this… Greatest alpha fountain in the history of man.'
Andrej Karpathy: Dusting off this tweet from April because this gap in shared understanding of LLM capability is *widening*. It's now less "two groups of people speaking past each other" and more a sharp funnel. - Napkin math somewhere around 6B people (~75% of the population) have barely come in contact with LLMs at all. - Around 1-2B (~20%) are casual and infrequent users of free-tier ChatGPT-like products… treats them a bit like a better Google search… - Now we get to professional use of frontier-grade LLMs in math&code. Somewhere around 20M people (0.2%) see first-hand that large, complex projects that used to take them weeks/months can now be completed by agents with a prompt… - And finally we get to the ~5,000 people (~0.00006%) with access to frontier-grade systems internally… It looks like swarms of thousands of agents collaborating over weeks on software mega projects: minting zero days, running cyber attacks and defenses at machine speeds, discovering new science, advancing the frontier of mathematics… The general public has mostly not interacted with these systems… And a small sliver of professionals are experiencing the vertigo of the curve going vertical. And it is all happening at the same time.
Aaron Levie: This is a good way to understand how early we actually are in AI diffusion right now. The vast majority of people are using AI as a chatbot for simple interactions that approximate next-generation search. This is super useful but dramatically underrepresents the full capability of AI… agent swarms represent possibly the ultimate form factor of what agents will do inside of our workflows… You can get an early sense of where things are going and the opportunity ahead by seeing through the funnel that Andrej lays out.
Garry Tan: Be part of the 5000 today. It's amazing. The lucky thing is the price will come down and more people will see this, and get a chance to bring it to the world. Greatest alpha fountain in the history of man